The evaluation design and subsequent data gathering activities will address the following key research questions:
a) Has the Mafia Island Airport Upgrade Project contributed to easier, more efficient, and safer access to Mafia Island?
b) Has the Mafia Island Airport Upgrade project contributed to an increase in (i) tourism and/or (ii) business travel?
c) Has the Mafia Island Airport Upgrade project contributed to an increase in visitor spending on the island?
d) Has the Mafia Island Airport Upgrade project contributed to an increase in economic and investment activities on the island? (Hotel, wildlife refuge, food industry, etc.)
These are the thematic areas or critical issues for the evaluation. Linkage with the Project Logic will be as follows:
- Outcome indicators in the Project Logic will be addressed in evaluation question (b) above.
- Objective indicators in the Project Logic will be addressed in evaluation questions (c) and (d) above.
- The Compact Goal indicator will be part of the evaluation indicators of the project.
- The Consultant will also measure the Compact Goal using ownership of assets and food poverty as proxy of poverty indicators at micro level because they are used by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Household Budget Survey and Tanzania Poverty Monitoring Framework.
Kind of Data
Sample survey data [ssd]
Unit of Analysis
Community, hotels, households, visitors
Anonymized dataset for public distribution
Producers and sponsors
Millennium Challenge Corporation
The sampling strategy comprised of 100% coverage or census for Hotel Manager Survey because all hotels and guest houses that receive tourists in the Island were interviewed. There was also 100% coverage or census for the Village Leader Survey (Listing) because the Consultant walked thoroughly through each village and sub-village covering all households. All exit passengers were also interviewed during the two data collection months. With regard to the Hotel Guest Survey, all guests found at the hotels were interviewed.
Sampling was only applied for selection of Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) participants who were also respondents for Individual Interviews. Purposive random sampling was used. Participants were randomly selected in collaboration with village and sub-villages leaders ensuring that participants come from all areas including both men and women. Other selection factors included being of the working age (18 to 60 years) with good mental health. The sample size for the Individual Interviews survey was small - covering all FGD participants - because the ToR required small data collection effort due to lack of a counterfactual.
Dates of Data Collection
(a) Administrative Data
Administrative data will be obtained from TAA, TCAA, MIMP, Mafia District Council, Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries Development (MLFD) and Fish Processors in Mafia. Since each of these stakeholders will provide very specific data/information, there will be full coverage (without sampling).
(b) Hotel Survey Data
There are about seventeen (17) tourist hotels in Mafia. Since they are few, all will be covered by the evaluation during the baseline and the follow-up. If any new hotels will be opened during the
evaluation period, they will be added in the follow up.
(c) Hotel Guest Survey Data
Due to lack of a counterfactual, about 10% of guest of the hotel covered during the survey will be interviewed. Most hotels in Mafia are small size with less than fifty rooms. Assuming coverage of about twenty hotels, the sample size will be about 100 hotel guests.
(d) Passenger exit survey Data
The largest aircraft currently flying to Mafia is C208 with an average occupancy of 6.98 passengers. Data from TAA indicate that the average number of aircraft that landed at Mafia airport in 2011 was 116 per month. Therefore, the population of passenger arrivals per month is estimated at 348. While aircraft manifest could be used as sampling frame, most of the passengers are normally in rush such that orderly selection from the manifest (which normally come with the plane) will create delays and missing the respondents because most are not ready to wait and consider giving interview as a favour. To solve the above problem, questionnaires will be given to all passengers when boarding in Mafia. Therefore, both men and women passengers will be given the questionnaire. Therefore, there will be full coverage of all passengers that will travel by air from Mafia during the two weeks data collection effort of each round (baseline, interim and follow-up) and phases (wet and dry season). However, the consultant is not expecting all passengers to accept the questionnaire.
(e) Households and Businesses Data
This data will be collected from Mafia District Council and village leaders. Administratively, Mafia district is divided into 2 Divisions, 7 Wards, 20 Registered Villages (Table 5) and 132 sub- villages as shown in Figure 4. The Mafia Airport Upgrade Project is expected to affect households and businesses in Kilindoni where the Mafia District Headquarters and the airport are located. Households and businesses at Utende and Chole villages where most of the tourist hotels are located will also be affected by the project. Therefore, considering the small number of villages that are likely to be affected, leaders of all sub-villages of Kilindoni, Utende and Chole villages will be covered, about 18 sub-villages9.
(e) Community Data
The small data collection effort of community data will be conducted at the three villages of Kilindoni, Utende and Chole. Two FGDs will be conducted – one for male and another for female informants. The aim is to get gender disaggregated perceptions, opinions, beliefs, and attitudes towards the project. Therefore, a total of six FGDs will be conducted.