Notes
l_exchange_rate_unofficial represents the lowest price point for the exchange_rate_unofficial in the given month. This variable is essential for understanding market dips, buyer interest at lower prices, and the floor value of the commodity. Low price estimates are estimated as the expected value of the lower half of the price distribution based on conditional variance estimated using a fractionally integrated GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity) model estimated using a Generalized Error Distribution that allows for excess kurtosis. In candlestick charting, the low price forms the lower end of the candle or wick, showcasing the lowest market reach. Analyzing the low price is integral to understanding the full monthly price range and assessing market stability or distress.