Forecast Based Anticipatory Action Impact Evaluation 2024

The list of beneficiaries was provided by WFP's country office and contained almost 90,000 people. From this list we isolated 300 villages which have a small size of between 25-60 households and reside in most flood prone districts, as ranked by WFP's country office. From each village 15 households were randomly sampled, with replacement list of 10 households provided for each village. The first round of data collection was conducted by phone, and thus only households with active phone numbers were surveyed. We do not think this biases the sample because all beneficiary households were verified to have active phone numbers linked to their bKash accounts, through which they were to receive the transfers. In the third round, households which were in the original 15 sampled households but did not have a valid phone number were also attempted. The list of beneficiaries was validated every year since 2022, by local NGOs contracted by WFP's country office. Those NGO's listed all households living in flood prone areas, such as near river banks, in the districts residing in Jamuna basin.