Monthly food price inflation estimates by country
36 countries, 2008/01/01-2025/07/01, version 2025/07/07

Afghanistan, Armenia, Bangladesh...and 33 more, 2008 - 2025

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Reference ID

WLD_2021_RTFP-CTRY_v02_M

Producer(s)

Bo Pieter Johannes Andrée

Collection(s)

Fragility, Conflict and Violence

Metadata

Documentation in PDF DDI/XML JSON

Created on

Dec 13, 2023

Last modified

Jul 09, 2025

Page views

86534

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12519

Identification

Survey ID number

WLD_2021_RTFP-CTRY_v02_M

Title

Monthly food price inflation estimates by country

Subtitle

36 countries, 2008/01/01-2025/07/01, version 2025/07/07

Country/Economy

Name	Country code
Afghanistan	AFG
Armenia	ARM
Bangladesh	BGD
Burkina Faso	BFA
Burundi	BDI
Cameroon	CMR
Central African Republic	CAF
Chad	TCD
Congo, Dem. Rep.	COD
Congo, Rep.	COG
Gambia, The	GMB
Guinea	GIN
Guinea-Bissau	GNB
Haiti	HTI
Indonesia	IDN
Iraq	IRQ
Kenya	KEN
Lao PDR	LAO
Lebanon	LBN
Liberia	LBR
Libya	LBY
Malawi	MWI
Mali	MLI
Mauritania	MRT
Mozambique	MOZ
Myanmar	MMR
Niger	NER
Nigeria	NGA
Philippines	PHL
Senegal	SEN
Somalia	SOM
South Sudan	SSD
Sri Lanka	LKA
Sudan	SDN
Syrian Arab Republic	SYR
Yemen, Rep.	YEM

Study type

Monthly food price estimates in fragile countries

Series Information

Real Time Prices (RTP) is a live dataset compiled and updated weekly by the World Bank Development Economics Data Group (DECDG) using a combination of direct price measurement and Machine Learning estimation of missing price data. The historical and current estimates are based on price information gathered from the World Food Program (WFP), UN-Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), select National Statistical Offices, and are continually updated and revised as more price information becomes available. Real-time exchange rate data used in this process are from official and public sources.

RTP consists of three sub-series, Real Time Food Prices (RTFP) includes prices on a variety of food items that primarily include country-specific staple foods, Real Time Energy Prices (RTEP) includes fuel prices, and Real Time Exchange Rates (RTFX) and includes unofficial exchange rate estimates as well as possible other unofficial deflators.

To produce smooth price series, outliers in the data are often adjusted using non-parametric density estimation and other techniques. Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models are used to estimate intra-month price ranges. These models allow for excess kurtosis using a Generalized Error Distribution (GED). Open, High, Low, and Close price estimates are provided based on the modeled time-varying price distributions.

Data are produced from 2007 to the present and estimates are given for individual commodity items at geo-referenced market locations. Predicted data for missing entries are based on exchange rates, and price data available either at other market locations or from related price items.

RTP estimates of historical and current prices may serve as proxies for sub-national price inflation series or substitute national-level Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) indicators when complete information is unavailable. Therefore, RTP data may differ from other sources with official data, including the World Bank’s International Comparison Program (ICP) or inflation series reported in the World Development Indicators.

The following datasets are part of this sub-series:

Country-level inflation:

All countries: https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/study/WLD_2021_RTFP-CTRY_v02_M

Market-level estimates:

HIGH-LOW CHART, AND INFLATION

LOCATION OF MARKETS

CHANGE IN INFLATION RATES OVER TIME

Abstract

Food price inflation is an important metric to inform economic policy but traditional sources of consumer prices are often produced with delay during crises and only at an aggregate level. This may poorly reflect the actual price trends in rural or poverty-stricken areas, where large populations reside in fragile situations.
This data set includes food price estimates and is intended to help gain insight in price developments beyond what can be formally measured by traditional methods. The estimates are generated using a machine-learning approach that imputes ongoing subnational price surveys, often with accuracy similar to direct measurement of prices. The data set provides new opportunities to investigate local price dynamics in areas where populations are sensitive to localized price shocks and where traditional data are not available.

Version

Version Date

2025/07/07

Version Responsibility Statement

FCV Data Platform

Scope

Notes

List of food products included in estimates (not all products are included in country-level estimates): apples, bananas, beans, bread, bulgur, cabbage, carrots, cassava, cassava flour, cassava meal, cheese, chickpeas, chili, coffee instant, couscous, cowpeas, cucumbers, dates, eggplants, eggs, fish, fish catfish, fish mackerel, fish sardine canned, fish tilapia, fish tuna canned, fonio, gari, garlic, groundnuts, lentils, livestock sheep two year old male, livestockgoat castrated male, livestocksheep castrated male, maize, maize flour, maize meal, meat beef, meat beef chops, meat beef minced, meat buffalo, meat chicken, meat chicken broiler, meat chicken plucked, meat chicken whole, meat goat, meat lamb, meat pork, milk, millet, oil, onions, oranges, parsley, pasta, peas, plantains, potatoes, pulses, rice, rice various, salt, sesame, sorghum, sorghum food aid, sugar, tea, tomatoes, tomatoes paste, wheat, wheat flour, yam, yogurt

Keywords

Food Price Monitor FPM Real Time Food Prices RTFP Inflation Food Price Inflation Food security Food Insecurity Food Crisis Famine Fragility FCS FCV Food Price Crisis Commodity prices Maize Sorghum Wheat Rice Agricultural prices Food prices Real Time Food Prices Price measurement Real-time exchange rate data Commodity items Geo-referenced market locations Sub-national price inflation series Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) National-level CPI indicators International Comparison Program (ICP) Inflation series Market prices Price analysis Real-time data National prices International prices Price fluctuations Price trends Price Volatility

Coverage

Geographic Coverage notes

The data cover the following areas: Afghanistan, Armenia, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Dem. Rep., Congo, Rep., Gambia, The, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Indonesia, Iraq, Kenya, Lao PDR, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Philippines, Senegal, Somalia, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Yemen, Rep.

Geographic Unit

Country

Producers and sponsors

Primary investigators

Name	Affiliation
Bo Pieter Johannes Andrée	World Bank, Development Data Group (DECDG), Office of the Chief Statistician (DECCS)

Funding Agency/Sponsor

Name	Grant number	Role
Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office of the United Kingdom		Support to data analytics
Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office of the United Kingdom	KP-P174529-KMCE-TF0B4149	Data documentation and dissemination (FCV Data Platform)
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Australia	TF0B6892	Support to methodological development in low data regions
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Australia	TF0B6579	Support to methodological development in low data regions
Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development of Germany as part of the World Bank’s Food Systems 2030 Multi-Donor Trust Fund	TF073570	Expansion of coverage and maintenance
Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development of Germany as part of the World Bank’s Food Systems 2030 Multi-Donor Trust Fund	TF0C0728	Expansion of coverage and maintenance

Other Identifications/Acknowledgments

Name	Affiliation	Role
World Food Programme (WFP)	United Nations	Source of market price data
Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO)	United Nations	Source of market price data

Data collection

Dates of Data Collection

Start	End
2008/01	2025/07

Time periods

Start date	End date
2008/01	2025/07

Sources

Data source	Origin of source	Characteristics
World Food Programme (WFP)	https://data.humdata.org/organization/wfp?vocab_Topics=prices	World Food Programme (WFP); data published in the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX) data catalog at https://data.humdata.org/
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)	https://fpma.fao.org/giews/fpmat4/#/dashboard/tool/domestic	Local exchange rates and implied exchange rates data derived from commodity pairs published by FAO through the Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FMPA) Tool

Access policy

Location of Data Collection

World Bank Microdata Library, FCV

URL for Location of Data Collection

https://microdata.worldbank.org

Data Access

Access authority

Name	Affiliation	URL
Data Help Desk	World Bank, Development Data Group	https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/

Citation requirements

Please cite this dataset as follows: Andrée, B. P. J. (2021). Monthly food price inflation estimates by country (Version 2025-07-07). WLD_2021_RTFP-CTRY_v02_M. Washington, DC: World Bank Microdata Library.

Restrictions

The estimates presented in this dataset are all based on publicly-available data.
The dataset of price estimates is published as open data.

Disclaimer and copyrights

Disclaimer

The RTFP data and metadata provided are "as is" and "as available," and every effort is made to ensure their timeliness, accuracy, and completeness. When errors are discovered, they are corrected as appropriate and feasible. For details on the terms and conditions for usage of the RTFP database, please refer to the license details.

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Monthly food price inflation estimates by country 36 countries, 2008/01/01-2025/07/01, version 2025/07/07