World Food Security Outlook

World, 1999 - 2030

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Reference ID

WLD_2023_WFSO_v01_M

DOI

https://doi.org/10.48529/ev5a-ke69

Producer(s)

Bo Pieter Johannes Andree

Collection(s)

Fragility, Conflict and Violence Real-Time Development Indicators (RTDI)

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Nov 13, 2023

Last modified

Nov 25, 2025

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Altered Destinies

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subtitle	The Long-Term Effects of Rising Prices and Food Insecurity in the Middle East and North Africa
Author(s)	Gatti, R., Lederman, D., Islam, A.M., Bennett, F.R., Andree, B.P.J., Assem, H., Lotfi, R., Mousa, M.E.
Date	2023
Country	MENA
Language	English, French, Arabic
Publisher(s)	World Bank
Description	The MENA Economic Update of April 2023
Abstract	Growth is forecasted to slow down for the Middle East and North Africa region. The war in Ukraine in 2022 exacerbated inflationary pressures as the world recovered from the COVID 19 pandemic induced recession. The response by central banks to raise rates to curb inflation is slowing economic activity, while rising food prices are making it difficult for families to put meals on the table. Inflation, when it stems from food prices, hits the poor harder than the rich, thus compounding food insecurity in MENA that had been rising over decades. The immediate effects of food insecurity can be a devastating loss of life, but even temporary increases in food prices can cause long-term irreversible damages, especially to children. The rise in food prices due to the war in Ukraine may have altered the destinies of hundreds of thousands of children in the region, setting them on paths to limited prosperity. Food insecurity imposes challenges to a region where the state of child nutrition and health were inadequate before the shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. The report discusses policy options and highlights the need for data to guide effective decision making.
Table of contents	Part 1: The Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook Part 2: The Lasting Impact of Food Insecurity
Download	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39559

Machine Learning Guided Outlook of Global Food Insecurity Consistent with Macroeconomic Forecasts

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Author(s)	Bo Pieter Johannes Andree
Date	2022
Publisher(s)	World Bank
Download	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099224110112215850/IDU0e396273b08036047c8082f8086f52e55c9ac

Mid-Term Review of the Crisis Response Window Early Response Financing

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Author(s)	IDA
Date	2021
Download	https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/252271636587686210/pdf/IDA19-Mid-Term-Review-of-the-Crisis-Response-Window-Early-Response-Financing.pdf

Responding to the Emerging Food Security Crisis

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Author(s)	IDA
Date	2020
Country	World
Language	English
Publisher(s)	The World Bank
Description	The methods to calculate the Short-Term Caloric Needs Financing were first used in this report to estimated the financing needs to respond to the pandemic. The World Food Security Outlook maintains historical, preliminary and projections of the figures used in the the report to estimate the size of the World Bank Group’s Response to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) Pandemic.
Abstract	Immediate needs are significant and growing, well beyond the originally planned financing capacity of IDA19. Meeting only the short-term replacement cost of a fraction (25 percent) of daily caloric needs of the projected additional acutely food insecure people due to COVID-19 is estimated at US$6.5 billion in Y2020. For CY2020–22, this could be as high as US$34.3 billion. These costs are additional to the needs of those who were already acutely food insecure pre-COVID-19 and the costs of addressing the longer-term drivers of food insecurity. The CRW ERF has seen higher-than-expected demand for food security responses in its first few months of implementation, with potential demand rising to about US$800 million over the IDA19 cycle. The proposal to double the ERF aggregate ceiling from US$500 million to US$1 billion will be discussed in the context of the overall financing package.
Download	https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/775981606955884100/pdf/Responding-to-the-Emerging-Food-Security-Crisis.pdf

IDA19 Mid-Term Review of the Crisis Response Window

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subtitle	Early Response Financing
Author(s)	IDA
Date	2021
Country	World
Language	English
Publisher(s)	The World Bank
Description	IDA19 Mid-Term Review of the Crisis Response Window. Modeled 5-year projections of severely food insecure populations for 56 IDA eligible countries were produced using the World Food Security Outlook methodology and subsequently used to estimate food crisis exposure and determine Early Response Financing demand under the Crisis Response Window.
Abstract	This paper reviews the first 14 months of the ERF’s operation, and this short duration should be borne in mind when assessing potential policy changes. The review spans July 2020 when the ERF took effect to September 1, 2021, and its scope covers technical aspects such as the ERF activation framework and financing caps. All ERF requests so far have been for food insecurity and more would have to be learned on how it responds to disease outbreaks. Overall, this review identifies areas for improvement but does not recommend sweeping changes.
Download	https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/252271636587686210/pdf/IDA19-Mid-Term-Review-of-the-Crisis-Response-Window-Early-Response-Financing.pdf

Responding to Rising Food Insecurity

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subtitle	A Financing Perspective
Author(s)	The World Bank, Agriculture and Food Global Practice
Date	2023-03-02
Country	World
Language	English
Publisher(s)	Group of 24
Description	Presentation by the World Bank on Food Insecurity Financing Perspectives to the Technical Group Meeting of the G24 on March 2, 2023, that drew on the World Food Security Outlook of October 2022 to motivate the World Bank's response to the global food crisis.
Abstract	Food insecurity has reached new highs in 2022, and projections indicate that it will continue worsening through 2023. The WB is mobilizing up to $30 billion between April 2022 and June 2023 in existing and new projects in areas such as agriculture, nutrition, social protection, water and irrigation.
Download	https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/6103/download/94903

World Bank Food Security Update

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subtitle	December 4, 2023
Author(s)	The World Bank
Date	2023-12-04
Country	World
Language	English
Publisher(s)	The World Bank
Description	The December 4, 2023 brief on rising food insecurity and World Bank responses
Abstract	Since the last update on November 09, 2023, the agriculture and export price indices closed 2 percent and 6 percent higher, respectively, while the cereal price index closed 3 percent lower. • Domestic food price inflation remains high in low-, middle-, and high-income countries. • In the World Bank October 2023 World Food Security Outlook, updated estimates and projections highlight that global food security conditions are stabilizing slowly but that disparities between income groups are increasing. • A new Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report attempts to capture the “true cost” of global agrifood systems by analyzing the substantial hidden costs associated with the sector. According to its findings, these costs add up to approximately USD 12.7 trillion annually (2020 purchasing power parity, US$), or about USD 35 billion per day, equivalent to about 10 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020.
Download	https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/6103/download/94904

World Bank Food Security Update

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subtitle	June 29, 2023
Author(s)	The World Bank
Date	2023-06-29
Country	World
Language	English
Publisher(s)	The World Bank
Abstract	Since the last update on June 15, 2023, the agricultural price indices closed 1 percent higher, the cereal price index 3 percent higher, and the export price index 5 percent lower. • Domestic food price inflation remains high in low-, middle-, and high-income countries. • The most recent Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates for 2022 indicate that the World Health Assembly and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 (zero hunger) targets for 2030 are moving further out of reach. • According to the latest World Bank analysis of data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and a model that leverages the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook, global hunger will persist. • The recent Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2023-2027 from the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) outlines recent developments in global supply of and demand for fertilizers and presents IFA’s 5-year outlook. • A recent International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) blog outlines the impact of the Nova Kakhovka dam collapse and damage to an ammonia pipeline in Ukraine’s Kharkov region, implications for the grain deal, and likely consequences of terminating the agreement. • The latest FAO Food Outlook points to increases in production and higher closing stocks of several basic foodstuffs.
Download	https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/6103/download/94905

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